House Republicans: Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?

     There is an old saying about assuming. Most of us know how it ends. But for House Republicans, apparently it is an adage they have never heard before. As of this writing, House GOP members continue to remain divided on their choice for Speaker of the House. Until Tuesday morning, the overwhelming consensus, the assumption, was that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) would take the gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s boney fingers. But wait a minute, not so fast. Here is where assumption has landed Republicans. What can they do about it, and just how big of a gift will they continue to give the Democrats?

     We can talk about how after three votes, McCarthy could not secure the 218 votes needed to become the Speaker of the House, and as a result, a second and third vote was taken on Tuesday, and a fifth and sixth on Wednesday, something that has not happened for 100 years. We can talk about how Republicans trying to go rogue, have also nominated Reps. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Lee Zeldin (R-NY), and Byron Donalds (R-FL). And we might even agree with Rep. Lauren Boebert’s assessment of the proceedings Tuesday morning when she was heard to say, “this is bulls***,” as McCarthy attempted to persuade his fellow Republicans to back his bid for speaker. But let’s be honest, Republicans have started down the road of division before Tuesday.

     Some of it may stem from the lackluster midterm performance. As the record of the Biden administration just kept getting worse, the indications from pundits from almost the beginning of 2022 was that the November midterm elections were the Republicans to lose. Well, a strange thing happened on the way to mail in those ballots. The red wave that all those talking heads predicted turned into a red trickle. There has been a lot of in Party finger-pointing since November. Some pointed at Trump endorsed GOP candidates, some pointed at the near sabotage of Senate candidates by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, some have pointed at Republicans realization all too late that, that no matter how smarmy it may seem, reality says that they had better learn how to play the mail-in ballot and ballot harvesting game as well or better than Democrats.

     While McCarthy’s supporters will say that he has “earned” the title of Speaker of the House, just as many will point out McCarthy’s sometime squishiness. The week after the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol, McCarthy is reported to have said that former President Donald Trump should “accept his share of responsibility” for the violence at the Capitol. McCarthy also stated, “The President bears responsibility for Wednesday’s attack on Congress by mob rioters. He should have immediately denounced the mob when he saw what was unfolding. These facts require immediate action by President Trump.” Audio recordings leaked in April of this year have McCarthy saying that he wanted to suggest to Trump that he resign in the wake of the riot. McCarthy denied the conversation until the recordings were made public. In what may be an odd twist, Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind McCarthy. The even odder twist, many of the 20 hold out votes, the “never Kevins,” are staunch Trump supporters.   

     Some of those never-Kevins see just another D.C. swamp creature in their midst. As Republicans prepare to take over, the promise of investigations into the disaster at the southern border, withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in his son Hunter’s shady overseas business deals in places like Ukraine and China and “holding people accountable” were what got many reelected and propelled others into office. Some Republicans have already filed articles of impeachment against Biden, primarily for the border chaos. But McCarthy has shown signs of folding there as well. In April, McCarthy said, “We believe in the rule of law. We’re not going to pick and choose just because somebody has power. We’re going to uphold the law. At any time, if someone breaks the law and the ramification becomes impeachment, we would move towards that. But we’re not going to use it for political purposes.” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is one of those opposing McCarthy and clearly smells swamp on him. He said of McCarthy on Tuesday, “If you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise. I’m a Florida man and I know of what I speak.”

     Of course, all this jack-assery is for Democrats, Christmas and their birthdays all rolled into one. Every House Democrat, all 212 of them, have backed incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). A quick perusal of social media will tell you that they are loving Republican infighting and have taken full advantage of the chance to portray Republicans as not being able to walk and chew gum.

     So, what does it all mean? Well, for one thing, there is no question that this is a fight for the soul of the Republican Party. And while you can argue that perhaps the 20 that oppose McCarthy should not get a win over the 200 that support him, it goes deeper than that. Are conservatives going to oversee the Party or will it be business as usual, conservative lite? Ask any average American, and they are likely to tell you, that business as usual is the problem. And absolutely no one is asking what this does for any future unity for House Republicans. Will there even be any? That is the blood in the water that Democrats are gleefully smelling.

     As this writing goes to press, Kevin McCarthy has lost a ninth vote, and the House will vote for a tenth time, something that has not happened since the Civil War, to elect a new Speaker.