Senate and House Seats That Could Put the GOP in Control

     I’ve said it before, and I will say it again. If you are a political geek, “it’s the most wonderful time of the year.” As the race for the White House comes down to the final three weeks, the future of how the House of Representatives and the Senate will look after November 5 is shaping up as well. Can Republicans get Donald Trump back in the White House, along with building on the razor thin House majority and perhaps flip the Senate and send Chuck Schumer packing? As of this writing, things are looking good for Republicans, but in the case of Democrats, as we have all seen before, desperate people do desperate things. Here are just a few of the Senate and House races that could change things up a bit.

     Right now, in the Senate, Democrats also have a razor thin majority, with Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kirsten Sinema (I-AZ) both caucusing with Democrats. The GOP only needs two flips, but if election night is a good one, they could possibly see five. In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D) is fighting for his political life against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Sheehy is a businessman and former Navy SEAL. Donald Trump won Big Sky Country handily in both 2016 and 2020, and Tim Sheehy could do the same. Currently, he is up 52-44 points on Tester, a guy who likes to portray himself as a moderate but has voted with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris 91 percent of the time. If Sheehy can hang onto his eight-point lead, there is a good chance this seat goes red.

     Another high-profile Senate race is in Ohio, where long-time swamp creature Sherrod Brown is running against another businessman/outsider, Bernie Moreno. Brown is a guy who has hung around Washington, D.C., for thirty-plus years. In 1992, he ran for and won the House Seat for Ohio’s 13 congressional district. He held that seat until 2006 when he ran for the Senate and won. Brown is another one who votes with Joe Biden 98.5 percent of the time. Moreno has the support of both Donald Trump and Ohio’s junior Senator, VP candidate Sen. J.D. Vance. The Buckeye state has been kind of purple for the last few elections, even though Trump won it in 2020. He is likely to win it again in good part because of his running mate Vance, and that bodes well for Moreno. Right now, Brown is only up by one point. One big final push before election day, and Moreno could easily make up that deficit.

 

    One more race that could make all the difference in the Senate for Republicans is in Wisconsin. Incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin is running against GOP challenger, real estate magnate Eric Hovde. Wisconsin is traditionally blue, but stranger things have happened. Just ask Wisconsin’s other Senator, Republican Ron Johnson. Right now, it’s a close race, but depending on the poll you look at, Baldwin’s lead is anywhere from four points in The Hill/Emerson poll to just one point in the Insider Advantage poll. Baldwin’s seat at one time was considered “blue wall” territory and fairly safe. But with poll numbers being all over the place, that has changed. The Cook Political Report has changed this race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” Baldwin would be another reliable vote at 95.5 percent lost for Democrats.

     Two Senate races that are not talked about as much are in Michigan and West Virginia. In Michigan, Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin is up against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. Right now, Slotkin is up by three points. In West Virginia, moderate Democrat incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin has decided to call it quits and is not seeking reelection. West Virginia has been trending red for the last few election cycles, and Gov. Jim Justice is the Republican nominee for that seat. Justice is running against the Democrat mayor of Wheeling, Glenn Elliott. Jim Justice has a commanding lead over Elliott by 13 points.

     Looking at a few key congressional races, in Maine’s 2^nd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Jared Golden is up against Republican challenger Austin Theriault and Independent Diana Merenda. Golden’s seat is considered to be one of the most vulnerable, as he has distanced himself from the national Party recently. Michigan’s 7^th Congressional District is being vacated by the aforementioned Elissa Slotkin, and that race is between Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel. If Michigan goes for Trump, that could make that race even more interesting. Another Michigan seat that could go GOP if Trump does well is Michigan’s 8^th District, where incumbent Dan Kildee is retiring, and the race is between Republican Paul Junge, who is a former prosecutor and served in the first Trump administration, and Democrat State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet.

     Since the devastation of Hurricane Helene in late September, any race in North Carolina, one of the places hardest hit, and the subsequent lack of response by the Biden administration will be interesting. In North Carolina’s 1^st congressional district, incumbent Democrat Donald Davis is up against Republican Laurie Buckhout. There is also a Libertarian candidate in the race. In the crucial state of Pennsylvania, two House seats now held by Democrats might be flipped into the red category. In PA7, Republican State House member Ryan Mackenzie is looking to unseat Democrat Susan Wild. Republicans believe this is a seat that can go red. Also, possibly going in the GOP column is PA8, where Rob Bresnahan Jr. is challenging Democrat incumbent Matt Cartwright, whose seat, for some reason, is always considered up for grabs every election cycle.

     So, that is a quick snapshot of what is going on around the country. Just one more thing, Republicans! Get out and vote!