Sizing Up the Midterm Senate Races
Why it Matters a lot in 2022
With the midterm election just four months away, primary season is in full swing. While all eyes are on the House races, most pundits will tell you that, barring anything catastrophic, it likely is the Republicans to lose. Although don’t discount the GOP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The United States Senate, however, could be a whole other animal. Currently, it is split evenly 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. In a country so divided, gone are the days where 67 Senators, a two-thirds majority could agree on anything. To get a Senate Republican majority on anything, those Republicans will have to get elected.
We can point to states that are “traditionally” blue or “traditionally” red, and several of those states have seats that are up for grabs. But stranger things than flipping Senate seats have happened. Here is a bit of what is on the table for 2022.
In Pennsylvania, TV doctor Mehmet Oz is up against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Fetterman is a far-left guy who supported Bernie Sanders. His TV spots do not identify his party affiliation. It could be that not just House candidates ate distancing themselves from Joe Biden. Pennsylvania is a state with a blue history, and Joe Biden carried in 2020. Oz has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. The Fabrizio/Anzalone poll has Fetterman up by 6 points.
In Georgia, former Georgia Bulldogs, NFL star, and political newbie Herschel Walker will face Sen. Raphael Warnock. Warnock won one of the 2021 Georgia run-off elections against Kelly Loeffler but may have a bit more trouble this time around. Walker beat his primary opponents handily, but the latest poll, also Fabrizio/Anzalone has Warnock up by three points.
Nevada could be a referendum on Harry Reid protégé, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto and former attorney general Adam Laxalt. Nevada’s tourism industry took a hit from COVID and has some high gas prices. Masto faces former attorney general Adam Laxalt, who has name recognition being the grandson of a former Governor and Senator. Given Joe Biden’s tanking popularity with Hispanics, it might be interesting to see which way they swing. The latest The Hill/Emerson poll has Cortez Masto up by three.
Arizona is not exactly a Democrat stronghold, even though both Senators are currently Democrats. Mark Kelly will go up against the winner of the GOP primary that includes candidates like attorney general Mark Brnovich, businessman Jim Lamon, and venture capitalist Blake Masters. If Arizonans are hot enough under the collar about the U.S. southern border and illegal immigration, it could be bad for Kelly. A Real Clear Politics average has the Trump-endorsed Masters up by 10 points.
The Wisconsin primary is not until August 9th, but polling data shows incumbent Ron Johnson in a tight race with whoever wins the Democrat primary. Democrat candidates include Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Johnson’s seat is one that is being closely looked at as a possible flip for Democrats.
New Hampshire is always an interesting place, and 2022 will be no different. Democrat Maggie Hassan will try to hang on to her seat in a state whose motto is “live free or die.” Hassan narrowly won her last election by just over 1,000 votes, but New Hampshire’s primary is not until September. Running on the GOP side, state Senate President Chuck Morse, former Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith, and retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc. Real Clear Politics averages put Hassan ahead of all Republican candidates but one. But the polls are not recent so things could change.
North Carolina looks good for Republicans as they are galvanizing behind Rep. Ted Budd to take over retiring Senator Richard Burr’s seat. Budd has received Trump’s endorsement and will face state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley. Real Clear Politics averages have Budd up by 3.8 points.
One race that, has a good chance of remaining red, will nonetheless be interesting to watch will be in Missouri as Sen. Roy Blunt retires. Among those running, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, Rep. Vicky Hartzler and Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, whose name might sound familiar. McCloskey and his wife exercised their Second Amendment rights and defended their home against a BLM mob in June of 2020. And former Gov. Eric Greitens. Greitens resigned the Governorship in 2018 amid a sex scandal. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has endorsed Schmitt, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has endorsed Hartzler. Hartzler had asked for former President Donald Trump’s endorsement but did not receive it. Greitens has a cult following who believe that he was driven from office by establishment types in the Missouri GOP. For the Democrats, the candidate with the most name recognition is beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine. Valentine is a political novice, but obviously has money and her name, something the other 11 Democrat candidates are lacking. The most recent Real Clear Politics average has Eric Greitens up by 5.3 points.
One of the most important things to keep in mind for Republicans is the Democrats eyeing the Supreme Court to push through their agenda. The state of Joe Biden’s health is becoming a more talked about topic, and if there must be another Supreme Court confirmation before 2024, it is imperative to have a solid Republican majority.
The Democrat party is in a precarious place right now. Our goal should be to make them even more precarious.
